Alright, let’s talk about something I spent a bit of time on recently – trying to figure out who might get promoted from the Championship. I follow football quite a bit, and the Championship race is always exciting, full of ups and downs. So, I thought, why not try and put some structure around predicting the promotion spots?
Getting Started – The Idea
It started pretty simply. I was just watching the games, looking at the table, and like everyone else, making guesses. But I wanted to see if I could make my guesses a little more, well, informed. Not super scientific, mind you, just based on things I could actually track.
My first thought was, what really matters? Obvious stuff came to mind:
- Current points: Can’t ignore where teams are right now.
- Recent form: Are they winning lately or falling apart?
- Goals: Scoring loads? Leaking goals like crazy? Goal difference seems key.
I figured that was a decent starting point. Didn’t want to overcomplicate it straight away.
Finding the Numbers
Next step was getting the actual data. This wasn’t too bad, honestly. I spent some time browsing the official league website and a couple of popular football stats sites. I wasn’t looking for anything too obscure, just the basics: league table standings, results of recent matches, goals for and against.
I ended up just jotting things down, copying parts of tables into a simple spreadsheet. It was a bit manual, yeah, copying and pasting team names, points, goal difference, and then figuring out their form over the last, say, six games. Took a bit of time, especially making sure I hadn’t made any typos.
Trying Out Simple Predictions
With the basic data in my spreadsheet, my first attempt was laughably simple. I literally just looked at the current top teams and thought, “Well, they’ll probably stay there.” But that felt pointless, the league changes so fast.
Then I tried projecting points based on points per game so far. Calculate their average points per match, multiply by the remaining games, add it to their current total. It gave a slightly different picture, but still felt a bit basic. It doesn’t account for tougher run-ins or teams hitting form.
Adding a Bit More Detail
So, I decided to give ‘form’ a bit more weight. I created a simple scoring system in my spreadsheet. Maybe give teams points for wins and draws in their last six matches. I played around with how much weight to give this ‘form score’ compared to their actual league position and goal difference.
I fiddled with the numbers a bit. For instance, I thought maybe goal difference should count for more than just one or two goals separating teams. And that recent form, especially coming into the final stretch, is super important.
I didn’t get into super complex stats like xG or anything. Honestly, wanted to keep it something I could manage easily and explain simply. It was more about the process for me.
Putting It Together and Making Picks
After messing about with weightings in my spreadsheet – giving points for league position, extra for goal difference, bonus for recent form – I ended up with a total ‘promotion potential’ score for each team near the top.
I then sorted the teams based on this score. The top two were my picks for automatic promotion. The next four were my picks for the play-offs. It wasn’t a magic formula, just my own little system based on the data I’d gathered and the factors I thought mattered most.
Looking Back
Was it perfect? Absolutely not. Football’s unpredictable, that’s the beauty of it. Injuries happen, managers change, teams have surprising results. My simple spreadsheet couldn’t account for all that.
But it was a fun exercise. It made me look at the league standings and team performances a bit more closely. Instead of just a gut feeling, I had some numbers, however basic, backing up my thoughts.
I’ll definitely be keeping an eye on how the actual season pans out compared to my little prediction list. Maybe next season, I’ll try refining it, perhaps track data earlier, or find a slightly easier way to update it. For now, though, it was an interesting way to spend an afternoon!
