Alright folks, buckle up. So this Elliot with two ‘t’s thing… Elliott, right? Kept popping up in places I hang out. People raving. Figured, hey, I gotta see what this fuss is about. Can’t just take their word for it.
The “What Even IS This?” Phase
First thing I did? Went hunting. Not some fancy research, just typing “Elliott Wave” into the search bar like anyone else. Articles, videos… walls of confusing squiggly lines on charts. My eyes glazed over instantly. Looked like spilled spaghetti on a stock chart.
I thought: Nope, too much. Kept it simple. Downloaded a charting app for free. Picked something familiar – Apple stock. Just stared at the wiggly line for days. Trying to spot… patterns? Anything? Mostly felt like guessing cloud shapes. Pure frustration.
My First Clumsy Try
Saw someone mention Elliott helps spot “trend corrections”. Whatever that meant. Decided my first experiment: Spotting a Pullback. Not predicting the future, just seeing if the price dipped after a rise, kinda like the theory suggested it often would.
- Opened my app, picked Netflix.
- Looked for a sharp up move over a few days.
- Waited… tick… tick… BAM! Price dropped next day.
- Okay, beginner’s luck? Huh.
Tried again on Amazon. Another sharp rise… waited… nothing much. Fizzled sideways. Imposter syndrome hit hard. Back to feeling stupid. Realized it wasn’t magic, just messy probabilities.
The “Oh, That’s Where It Might Work” Moment
Kept plugging away, felt like a hamster on a wheel. Then it clicked looking at bigger moves over weeks, not days. Less noise, maybe?
- Switched charts to weekly views. The S&P 500 index.
- Way smoother wiggles. That spaghetti started looking more… intentional?
- Started seeing those “five waves up, three waves down” structures people mumbled about. Faintly, but kinda there?
- Eureka? More like “Oh, maybe I see a shadow of what the hype is.”
Practical Spots I Found It Useful (For Me!)
After weeks of messing around, here’s where it actually helped without losing my mind:
- Hunting Entry Points: After a big climb, spotting that potential “wave four” flat spot or a shallow dip. Not for buying the peak. Helped my patience wait for slightly better prices.
- Confirming Trend Exhaustion: Seeing a potential “fifth wave” peak? Combined with other boring stuff like RSI being super high? It was my nudge to take some profit, not gamble on endless upside.
- Big Picture Context: Honestly, its biggest win for me. Stopped me from panicking during deep dips if the big weekly structure still looked like a possible correction inside a bigger uptrend.
The Real Benefit Wasn’t Prediction: Let’s be real. Elliott didn’t turn me into a mind reader. The structure it forced on my thinking was the win. Made me analyze charts slower. Asked: “Is this impulsive or corrective?” instead of just “Buy now?” It organized the chaos in my head a bit.
Where It Fell Flat (For Me)
Not all sunshine. Found it useless here:
- Super Short Timeframes: Forget minute charts. Noise drowned out any possible wave. Pure coin flip territory.
- Wild Choppy Markets: You know those days when everything feels random? Elliott labels break constantly. Better to just step away.
- Exact Targets: That “Wave 5 ends exactly at 161.8% retracement!” stuff? Almost never worked cleanly in reality. Used it as vague zones at best.
Bottom line? Found it’s a tool, not a crystal ball. Useful for framing market structure, spotting potential turning points, and adding some discipline. Ignored the complex counts, focused on the core wave ideas. Saved my sanity and maybe a few bucks. Won’t work for everyone, but digging into it myself… that was worth it.
