Alright folks, let me break down how I finally wrapped my head around Total Bases Prize Picks after scratching my head for weeks. Started last Tuesday with my coffee, thinking baseball stats couldn’t be that tricky. Boy, was I wrong at first.
My Dumb Starting Point
First thing I did was Google “what’s a total base” like a total newbie. Articles talked about TB stats but sounded like rocket science. So I grabbed a pencil and notepad like my grandpa taught me. Wrote down the stupidly simple breakdown right there at my kitchen counter:
- Single base hit? That’s 1 base (duh)
- Smack a double? Count 2 bases now
- Crack a triple? Add 3 to the total
- Absolute nuke of a homer? Jackpot 4 bases
Walked outside pacing my porch realizing it ain’t about how many hits, just how far those hits go. Felt like an idiot for overcomplicating it.
Testing the Theory Live
That night I fired up the Braves game with my notebook open. Acuña rips a single first inning – I scribble “+1” next to his name. Next at-bat he smashes one off the wall for a double. Changed it to “+2” then added that to his single. Paused the game – did math on a napkin: 1 + 2 = 3 total bases already. Ozzie Albies comes up, sends one flying right over my head (wishful thinking) – marked “+4” for the homer. Added Acuña’s 3 plus Albies’ 4: boom, 7 total bases between them halfway through the game.
Connecting to PrizePicks
Next morning logged into PrizePicks while eating oatmeal. Saw “Acuña +1.5 Total Bases” on the app. Suddenly understood they’re basically betting me if he’ll get at least 2 bases that game. Remembered yesterday he got 3, so maybe that’s easy money? Checked his season stats and laughed – dude averages like 2.5 per game. Then saw Pete Alonso with +0.5 and nearly choked on my oats – how’s he only need half a base? Google refreshed my brain: walks don’t count! Lightbulb moment – you only score bases when actually putting bat on ball successfully.
My final cheat sheet after trial and error:
- PrizePicks TB numbers are goals for total bases PER PLAYER
- Over/under = is player getting more or less than that number?
- Hot tip: check past series stats instead of full season
- Pitchers facing matter more than star names
Still mess up sometimes thinking a homer counts extra. Nah. Whether it’s a dinky single or grand slam bomb, just add those base numbers plain and simple. Saved me from making dummy bets after getting this straight.
