Okay so yesterday I decided to make a prediction between UC Irvine and Belmont basketball teams just for fun. Honestly? I don’t bet money or anything – just enjoy figuring out who might win games based on stuff I can dig up.
How I started scratching my head
First thing I did was look up both teams’ recent scores. Went straight to my laptop around 10AM with cold coffee next to me. Pulled up UC Irvine’s last five games – saw they beat Long Beach State but lost to Utah Valley. Belmont had that crazy overtime win against Murray State but got crushed by Drake.
- Checked Belmont players: Keishawn Davidson takes most shots but his 3-point percentage looked shaky
- UC Irvine roster: That big guy Carter Tilley kept fouling out early
- Wild card: Both teams had freshmen guards playing more minutes recently
The number crunching part
Made a stupid simple spreadsheet after lunch because complicated stats hurt my brain. Gave points for things like:
- Home court advantage (UCI playing in California)
- Free throw percentages over last month
- How many turnovers each team averaged
- Coach win records in close games
Belmont actually scored higher on offense stats but damn their defense numbers were messy. UC Irvine had that rock-solid rebounding but slower pace.
My final prediction meltdown
Around 3PM I’m staring at my messy notes thinking this is impossible. Belmont’s offense vs Irvine’s defense felt like unstoppable force meeting immovable object. Kept flipping back and forth like:
- If Belmont hits 40% from three-point line? They win
- But Irvine forces turnovers like crazy which Belmont does too much
- Heart says Belmont cause their coach makes great halftime adjustments
- Brain screams Irvine cause they’ve beaten better teams
Finally scribbled down UC Irvine 68 – Belmont 64 because Irvine’s defense would probably frustrate Belmont’s shooters late game. But wrote “PROBABLY WRONG LOL” right under it in my notebook. Predictions are harder than they look on TV.
