Alright, let’s get into how I actually approached those MLB Opening Day bets this year. Gotta share the messy reality, not some perfect theory.

First, The Plan I Stumbled On
I saw folks buzzing about a “simple strategy” for Opening Day. Sounded like easy cash, right? Mostly, it boiled down to betting against heavy favorites early in the game. The idea? Big favorites on Opening Day, especially at home, get too much hype. Odds get crazy low, like -200 or worse. So, if they don’t score first or lead early? The underdog’s odds suddenly look real tasty.
My Morning Prep – Total Amateur Hour
Woke up early, way too much coffee. Pulled up last year’s standings first. Just scribbled down which teams were heavy favorites for their openers. Didn’t overthink stats, seriously. Just looked for:
- Big name teams at home? ✔️
- Odds juiced to heck (like -250)? ✔️
- Playing against a nobody team? ✔️
Got five games that screamed “too expensive to bet on the favorite”. Yankees vs. Giants was one – Yanks at home, massive favorites. Dodgers hosting the Cards? Another obvious one. Dodgers were like -280. Nuts.
Putting Cash Down (The Nerve-Wracking Part)
Okay, here’s the simple part the strategy promised:

Wait for the favorite to not score in the 1st inning. If they didn’t? Jump on the underdog’s “live” moneyline right after the first inning.
Sounds easy, but man, hitting that bet button felt weird. Betting on the underdog against a powerhouse? Felt wrong. Did it on three games where the favorite didn’t score first.
- Giants (vs. Yankees): Yanks went down 1-2-3 in the 1st. Giants’ live odds shot up? Grabbed ’em.
- Cardinals (vs. Dodgers): Dodgers didn’t plate a run in the first either. Cards looking decent suddenly.
- Pirates (vs. Marlins): Marlins favorites?? They barely did anything first inning. Pirates? Why not.
Threw a little on each, like $20 bucks a pop. Kept it small, felt safer.
How It Actually Played Out (Chaos Central)
The good news? My Pirates bet hit! Pirates actually beat the Marlins. Easy cash. Felt smart for a minute.
The bad news? Giants had a lead, then blew it. Yankees came back and won. There goes that bet.

The ugly news? Cardinals? Total garbage. Dodgers smacked ’em around all game. That bet was dead by the 5th inning.
Ended up winning one out of three. Made back most of the cash I lost on the other two, plus a tiny bit of profit from the Pirates win. Not exactly hitting the jackpot.
What I Learned (The Hard Way, Obviously)
Simple strategies sound great. This one did work sometimes – the Pirates win proves the idea has legs. But Opening Day is pure chaos:
- Pitchers aren’t stretched out yet.
- Lineups are weird.
- Jitters mess everyone up.
Betting against favorites early definitely gets you better odds later. You’re basically playing the hype. Problem is, sometimes the favorites are that damn good (looking at you, Dodgers). And live betting moves FAST. You hesitate for 10 seconds, the odds change. Timing it right is stressful.
Overall? Fun experiment. Won a little, lost a little, got some decent drama out of it. Would I do it again next year? Probably. Maybe just pick ONE or TWO games max. Learned my lesson trying to force it on every heavy favorite. Focus matters. And honestly? Seeing the big favorite stumble early? Way more satisfying than you’d think, even if you lose the bet later.