Where I Started
Honestly, I got curious after losing a few casual bets last season. Kept hearing ads screaming about “scientifically proven” and “super accurate” MLB predictors online. Sounded too good to be true. So I decided to put a few popular ones to the test myself. Real-world, no marketing fluff.
Digging Into the Data Mess
First step was a pain: getting actual predictions recorded. I picked three major sites everyone talks about. Manually tracked them – and I mean, every single day for two straight months. Breakfast coffee? Scoreboard checking time. Had a whole spreadsheet nightmare going on:
- Column A: Game Date
- Column B: The Predictions (Win% for Home/Away)
- Column C: Actual Winner (Had to double-check box scores later)
It was tedious AF. Like watching paint dry, except it’s baseball stats. Filled up pages and pages. My browser tabs crashed more than once.
The Crunch Time
Alright, data collected. Time to see if these fancy algorithms knew their stuff. I wasn’t looking for perfection, just basic competence.
- Set up a simple rule: If a predictor gave Team A over 60% chance, we count that as them expecting Team A to win.
- Then, for each site, I tallied how many times they were dead wrong on those confident calls.
Did the math separately for each site. Just basic percentages – Right Calls / Total Confident Calls 100. Simple stuff.
What Surprised Me
Okay, the kicker? They weren’t total frauds, but man, they weren’t the crystal balls they pretended to be. For heavily favored teams (those supposed 70%+ chances):
- Site 1 nailed it about 62% of the time.
- Site 2 did a bit worse, around 58%.
- Site 3 surprised me – barely scraping past 55%!
Think about that. They’re shilling these super high win probabilities, but in reality, when they’re super confident a team will win, they were still wrong roughly 3 or 4 times out of every 10 attempts. That’s not “proven accuracy”. That’s basically a coin flip with extra steps for favorites sometimes. Totally changes how you see those flashy percentages.
My Takeaway
Honestly? Screw the hype. Use these things for entertainment or maybe sparking a thought, but betting the farm based solely on their prediction? Hell no. So much can happen in a single game – injuries, weather, a pitcher just having a rotten day. Numbers don’t capture that chaos. My own little project showed me their real-world limits loud and clear. Feels like they promise moon landings but sometimes deliver a muddy hike in the park. Be careful what you trust.
